All eyes are on Egypt as the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues

As the Israel-Hamas cease-fire arrives at its pivotal second phase, Egypt has emerged as the unlikely focal point for the next stage of the multifront war that has consumed the Middle East since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.

Although most of the world has focused on Gaza over the past 16 months, the ongoing Near Eastern conflict has revealed the stark fragility of Israeli-Egyptian relations.

President Trump’s declaration earlier this month that the US would “own Gaza” has revived fears in Cairo that Egypt will ultimately bear the brunt of solving the “Gaza” problem.

Those fears may be forthcoming — a forced transfer of thousands of Gazans into Egyptian territory. This is the last thing Egypt wants, so much so that President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi refused to accept an invitation by Trump to visit Washington if the agenda included his Gaza refugee proposal.

Still, Egypt is not stepping away from the negotiating table.

Along with Qatar, Cairo has played a crucial role in the hostage deals in order to showcase its commitment to ending the war. That is, as long as they can keep their border with Gaza closed. 

Yet at the same time, Egypt is taking no chances. The past few weeks have seen a significant Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai peninsula, signaling military action against Israel may be in the works. 

Newly appointed Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter indicated that Egypt has constructed military bases in Sinai “that can only be used for offensive operations, for offensive weapons.” All of this signals to Israel — and a restive US — that the war drums could be beating.

Ties between Israel and Egypt have never been warm since the two signed the Camp David Accords back in 1979.

But they’ve grown incrementally worse since the beginning of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest return to office back in December of 2022. Cairo is no fan of Netanyahu’s right-wing government. Discord between Cairo and Jerusalem has only intensified since the Hamas attack; El-Sisi has said little over the ensuing months, wary of fraying long-standing public support for Egypt’s Gaza brethren.

Egypt has also repeatedly — and vocally — denied it has allowed weapons to be smuggled into Gaza, a claim belied by the discovery of Hamas tunnels literally within view of Egyptian guard posts.  Egypt has facilitated illicit commerce into Gaza for years; it’s a key reason why Hamas has thrived.  

Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, in particular between the Rafah and Keren Shalom crossings, has for decades been the principal artery for Hamas’ movement of arms, munitions, cash and personnel into the Strip. These are the tunnels that ensured Hamas’ survival.  

Historically, Israeli-Egyptian relations were based on shared interests in deterring Islamist threats and counterterrorism, as well as preventing drug and weapons smuggling. These have mostly kept the relationship alive based on mutual goals, though nothing close to political rapprochement.

But over the course of 46 years the sands have shifted. In May 2024, Egypt amplified its bile towards Israel and announced that it was backing South Africa in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Israel of “genocide” in Gaza for defending its citizens against Hamas’s barbarity. Egypt outwardly attacked a supposed ally, only furthering distrust in Jerusalem.

Egypt has much to lose if its standing continues to erode both in Israel and Washington. Cairo receives approximately $1.5 billion worth of aid each year from the US and Trump has threatened to cut off the cash if Egypt doesn’t accept Gazans. But Egypt is putting its own plan together that would ensure “that Palestinians in Gaza remain in their homeland,” according to Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tamim Khallaf this week. 

The risk of losing US aid — totaling more than $80 billion since 1978  — is clearly keeping Sisi up at night; as it should. But Sisi also has to contend with regional pressures — from Iranian imperial ambitions and rivalries with Turkey and Qatar, to the consequences of having enabled Hamas in the decades preceding the atrocities of Oct. 7.

He is caught between the loyalty of the Arab street and the patronage of Washington — with Hamas pulling the strings every step of the way.

Asaf Romirowsky is the executive director of the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA) and Scholars for Peace in the Middle East (SPME).