Biden aides express optimism regarding Gaza ceasefire negotiations

With less than two weeks before President Joe Biden leaves office, his aides are once again expressing hope that Israel and Hamas could be close to reaching a deal for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages held by the terrorist group.

The optimism comes as the Biden administration and President-elect Donald Trump’s team are working together to achieve a deal before Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is flying to Doha, Qatar, this week, where the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk, has been participating in this latest round of talks since last weekend.

Trump, who said Tuesday that he doesn’t want to “hurt negotiations,” also reiterated his threat of unspecified havoc befalling the Middle East if the hostages aren’t released by the inauguration.

“If they’re not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East, and it will not be good for Hamas, and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago residence.

Witkoff told reporters at Trump’s Florida resort that he’s traveling to “hopefully finish it up” and outlined some of the deal.

He said that “aspirationally,” the Trump team hoped to get a 42-day ceasefire “enacted sometime before the inaugural.”

A senior Biden administration official told NBC News on Tuesday that it’ll know within the next 24 to 48 hours if a deal was likely, but that there is a decent chance of reaching one. 

The deal includes 34 hostages, though it’s unclear how many are still be alive, according to a separate senior administration official.

A U.S. official says they are optimistic a deal is close but they’ve been optimistic in the past — when the deals have fallen apart. And White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Friday — ahead of travel to the region — that the new deal “is both urgent and possible.”

But another senior administration official cautioned that “it‘s possible that we get there, but it’s not on the verge. Hamas has to reach a political decision that they want to do this and that it’s now or never.” 

The negotiations have been tense, with this official saying “we’re finding that Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed Sinwar, is even more stubborn than his deceased brother.” (Mohammed succeeded his brother, Yahta Sinwar, as Hamas’ leader after Yahta was killed by Israel Defense Forces in October.)

Two White House officials say they were sharing progress with incoming national security adviser Mark Walz and other incoming Trump officials — including Trump’s pick for secretary of state, Marco Rubio — as they did on the Lebanon ceasefire. 

The Trump and Biden teams have been working in tandem on the deal since shortly after the election, with Witkoff praising Biden’s team — but also suggesting that Trump’s reputation is driving the negotiations and that “it’s [his] strength that is moving things.”

“At the end of a 42-day ceasefire, that is beyond when the president will be inaugurated,” Witkoff told reporters Tuesday. “So it will be the president who is going to be most relevant. He will be in office when that 42-day ceasefire is over — that’s what Hamas cares about, how we move to phase two.”

Several Biden and Israeli officials have acknowledged that the president-elect’s rhetoric — specifically a Dec. 2 Truth Social post using the “all hell to pay” language — was a “big factor” in Hamas and Israel getting more serious about the talks.  

But another senior administration official downplayed Witkoff’s role, saying that “we are at this stage in negotiations thanks to painstaking diplomacy over many months,” pointing out that the deal on the table is the same as the one Biden outlined in May. 

That said, the official noted, “the obstacle remains Hamas, and the pressure on Hamas will only continue until it agrees to release hostages pursuant to that proposal.” The official says, “We are collaborating with “Steve) Witkoff and are in consultations with him and the Trump team. We are keeping them informed because we want to make sure if this doesn’t come together by January 20th there’s a smooth handoff.” 

An Israeli official previously told NBC that Hamas knows that once Trump is president, they could lose leverage because he will be more likely to side with Israel than Biden — and less likely to press for Hamas prisoners to be released as part of the deal.  

There are questions about the number of hostages alive — and while Witkoff wouldn’t speak to the exact number, he said he’s seen intelligence reports and “it’s not a small amount.” 

 A U.S. official, however, wouldn’t give a number but said is it lower than previously believed. 

Trump, seemingly moved by his calls with the American families of hostages, said, “But I’ve had mothers come to me and fathers crying, can I get the body of their son back? Can I get the body of their daughter back?”

Israeli and American families of hostages have been calling for the return of the bodies of their loved ones for suitable burials, but are also pressing Israeli and U.S. negotiators to make the release of hostages who are still alive their top priority.