Geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan says the US will have ‘massive’ deficits as long as boomers live
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Geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan says aging Americans built a ‘social welfare state’ for themselves without paying for it — now the US will have ‘massive’ deficits as long as boomers live
Bestselling author and geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan is warning that the U.S. is locked into massive, multi-trillion-dollar deficits for decades — and it’s all because of one generation: baby boomers.
In a recent YouTube video, Zeihan argued boomers built an increasingly generous welfare state during their prime earning years, but now that they’re retiring, the financial burden is shifting to younger generations — especially Generation X, which is significantly smaller in size.
“The boomers have created a social welfare state for themselves that they never had any intention of paying for,” Zeihan said. “Fast forward to today, two thirds of them are retired. They’re taking their money, they’re going home. The taxes that they’re paying have dropped off, and we are left with a welfare state to fund their retirement without their income to pay for it all.”
The numbers back up Zeihan’s concerns. According to Statista estimates, there are about 70 million baby boomers in the U.S., compared to roughly 65 million Gen Xers.
Meanwhile, according to the United States Census Bureau, about 10,000 boomers turn 65 every day, further accelerating the strain on government finances.
And according to Zeihan, that spells trouble for the nation’s long-term financial stability.
“So simply on the numbers between the exiting boomers and the entering Xers, we’re looking at chronic budget deficits … we’re looking at absolutely massive multi-trillion-dollar deficits every single year to be continued,” he said. “Deficits: massive, locked in as long as the boomers live, which is going to be on the average, another 15 to 25 years, based on who’s doing the math.”
The deficit problem is already serious. In fiscal year 2024, the federal government spent $6.75 trillion while collecting $4.92 trillion in revenue, leading to a $1.83 trillion deficit. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the 2025 federal budget deficit will climb to $1.9 trillion.
There’s also increasing concern about Social Security’s sustainability. According to the program’s annual Trustees Report, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will only be able to pay 100% of scheduled benefits until 2033.
After that, any further program income will only cover 79% of scheduled benefits.
As boomers enter their golden years, Gen X is set to benefit financially — at least for now. Zeihan believes the financial burden of the state will “fall on” Gen X, but in the meantime, the generation will dominate the economy.
“Until we get to that point, it’s a Gen X world,” he said. “We’re going to control all of the money. We’re going to control the majority of the property. We’re going to dominate the stock market.”
However, he warns that this advantage will be short-lived. As millennials — who have already overtaken boomers as the largest U.S. generation, with 72.7 million people — gain political power, they will likely push for major budget reforms. And according to Zeihan, Gen X will be the ones footing the bill.
Zeihan’s suggestion to Gen X is clear: “If you’re an Xer, our time has finally arrived, but it’s only going to be a moment, so make the most of it, get your money where it’s going to be protected because sooner or later the millennials will figure this out, and we will find a way to get the budget back into some degree of balance, and it will be Gen X that’s paying for it — but not today.”
Zeihan emphasized that his generation — Gen X — is becoming “capital rich” and should take full advantage of the opportunity while it lasts.
“If capital is available in limited supply, if demand is robust, at a time when the millennials are having their kids and building their homes — large generation demand — and we need to re-industrialize the United States, doubling the size of the industrial plant, whoever has the capital — Gen X — is going to be able to demand exorbitant rates for it, and it’s going to be a great time,” he explained.
However, while Zeihan suggests that Gen X will control the majority of property and dominate the stock market, it’s important to remember that this financial opportunity isn’t exclusive to any one generation.
For instance, while traditional homeownership typically requires a hefty down payment and a mortgage, you don’t need to buy a property outright to start investing in real estate. Crowdfunding platforms, for example, allow everyday investors to own shares in rental properties without the large down payments or management headaches traditionally associated with real estate ownership.
Investing in stocks can be even simpler — just ask Warren Buffett. He advocates for a strategy that doesn’t require stock-picking expertise.
“In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund,” he famously said.
This approach gives investors exposure to 500 of America’s largest companies across various industries, providing diversified exposure without the need for constant monitoring or active trading.
Buffett believes so strongly in this strategy that he has instructed 90% of his wife’s inheritance to be invested in “a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund” after he dies.
The beauty of this approach is its accessibility — anyone, regardless of wealth, can take advantage of it. Even small amounts can grow over time, and some apps even let you invest in an S&P 500 ETF with your spare change, making it easier than ever to build wealth alongside the world’s financial elite.
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
