GOP leaders raise alarm bells over a Florida special election in a deep-red district

Republican leaders have grown privately alarmed about the massive fundraising disparity their candidate, Randy Fine, faces in a special House election in a deep-red Florida district and have swooped in to help resuscitate his campaign at the 11th hour.

House GOP leaders have in recent days been calling donors to plead for financial help in the race to fill the seat previously held by Michael Waltz, who is now President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter. In addition, Fine, a state senator, has made personal pleas to Florida-based lobbyists and donors for a quick infusion of cash, according to two sources familiar with those conversations, ahead of the April 1 election.

While party leaders in both Washington and Florida are ultimately confident that Fine will pull off a victory, Republicans say they’re frustrated that they need to intervene in a district that Trump won by 30 points last year.

Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., who leads the House GOP’s campaign arm, said Fine “needs to do better” on his fundraising. But Hudson was confident Republicans would hold onto the seat, and said he did not expect the National Republican Congressional Committee to spend in the race.

“I would have preferred if our candidate had raised money at a faster rate and gotten on TV quicker,” Hudson told NBC News on Monday. “But he’s doing what he needs to do. He’s on TV now. We’re gonna win the seat. I’m not concerned at all.”

Fine’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.  

Fine has been significantly outraised by his Democratic opponent, teacher Josh Weil, who has raised a whopping $9.7 million to Fine’s $561,000, according to fundraising reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission. Fine also just started airing his first TV ad last week as part of a joint ad buy with the Florida Republican Party, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

In recent days, Fine has contributed $600,000 of his own money to his campaign, and FEC filings show that Fine has received contributions from PACs tied to Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and GOP Reps. Byron Donalds of Florida, Greg Murphy of North Carolina, Jeff Crank of Colorado and Ben Cline of Virginia. 

Trump, who first backed Fine ahead of the January primary, reiterated his endorsement in a Truth Social post last week. Trump also boosted Republican Jimmy Patronis, who is running in an April 1 special election in Florida’s 1st District to replace former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, on Monday, encouraging his supporters to head to the polls.

Trump’s political orbit has directly been guiding Fine’s campaign. Fine’s top consultant is Chris Grant, who worked for the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. during the 2024 election cycle, and his top pollster is Tony Fabrizio, who has long done work for Trump, including in 2024. Rapid Loop Consulting, a firm co-founded by White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, is advising a super PAC backing Fine’s campaign. Blair is no longer involved with the firm, which is run by his former business partner, Ryan Smith.

Florida’s 6th Congressional District has been vacant since Jan. 20, when Waltz resigned from Congress to serve as Trump’s national security adviser, leaving House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., with a historically small majority.

Fine has a prickly reputation even among Florida Republicans. For those who have worked with him over the years, many are not surprised that he is at risk of underperforming in a solidly Republican area.

“This race is proof that candidates matter,” said one veteran Florida GOP operative, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Randy will win because the seat is so Republican and because so much money came in late but this is a case of Team Trump dragging him over the finish line.”

Another longtime Florida Republican said for state-level Republicans “there would be no tears shed for Fine if he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,” though the person acknowledged a victory is important because of Republicans slim House majority.

Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer and the Republican running to replace Gaetz, was also significantly outraised by his Democratic opponent. Patronis pulled in $1.1 million to gun control activist Gay Valimont’s $6.4 million in the most recent fundraising period. 

But the 1st District race has not raised the same level of concerns, given Patronis’ stronger fundraising and the district’s redder hue — Trump carried the seat by 37 points, according to election results data from NBC News’ Decision Desk.

Still, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said the fundraising gaps are a sign that “the American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling.”

“These districts are so Republican, there would ordinarily be no reason to believe that the races will be close, but what I can say almost guaranteed is that the Democratic candidate in both of these Florida special elections will significantly over perform,” Jeffries told reporters.

Republicans have scrambled to match Democrats’ spending on the Florida airwaves in recent days. Defend American Jobs, a super PAC tied to the cryptocurrency industry, and an outside group called Conservative Fighter PAC have launched ads in both races within the last week, according to AdImpact.

Both groups have touted Trump’s endorsement of Fine and Patronis in ads.

“I haven’t heard real concerns that either of them are going to lose,” said one GOP strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the races. “But there are certainly concerns that they’re underperforming and whether it’s a harbinger of something this cycle.”