Heavy rain coming to desert this week. How will it stack up against past major storms?

Heavy rain is forecasted for parts of the Coachella Valley starting Thursday night. While the timing of the storm may cause some to remember the 2019 Valentine’s Day rainfall that caused widespread flooding, the amounts predicted this year fall far below those recorded six years ago.

The first noticeable raindrops should begin to fall in the Coachella Valley on Thursday, with light precipitation visible west of the mountains a bit earlier.

The National Weather Service forecasts between 0.3 and 0.8 inches for the Coachella Valley, with cities in the west like Palm Springs expected to receive more rain than those south and east. Most of the rain is predicted for Thursday night into Friday morning, with the storm completely passing by Friday night.

“So far this season, the events that we have had have been on the mild side in terms of rainfall amounts,” said weather service meteorologist Philip Gonsalves. “This is more like what we would expect in early February.”

He said some flooding could occur in low-lying roadways by Whitewater Canyon, but the rain might not be heavy enough to result in any flooding.

In 2019, Palm Springs recorded 3.69 inches during the Valentine’s Day rain event. Flooding from the storm caused Highway 243 and Highway 74 to be closed for months and $1.9 million in damage in Palm Springs alone.

At the time, meteorologists classified the rain as a 25-year storm, which means it has a 4% chance of occurring each year.

The upcoming storm may even fall short of the atmospheric river label by the time it reaches the Coachella Valley.

An atmospheric river is defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as a relatively long and narrow region in the atmosphere that carries an amount of water roughly equivalent to the average flow at the mouth of the Mississippi River, or around 593,003 cubic feet per second.

“It doesn’t really have the characteristics of an atmospheric river,” Gonsalves said. “It’s going to bring a significant amount of moisture, but it won’t be as long lasting and the effect of the moisture is not going to be as great over as great a distance.”

Recently, the remnants of Hurricane Hilary dumped around 3.2 inches of rain on Palm Springs, setting a summer record, in 2023.

The wettest day on record for the city occurred on Dec. 10, 1943, when nearly 4.6 inches of rain was recorded at the airport.

Sam Morgen covers the city of Palm Springs for The Desert Sun. Reach him at smorgen@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Palm Springs area weather forecast: Heavy rain ahead of Valentine’s Day