Meat, egg prices soar but overall inflation slows, data shows

A food category that includes meat and eggs had one of the biggest price hikes among all expenditures in March in the New York area, including Long Island, but overall consumer prices increased at the slowest pace since September, according to new federal data.

Grocery prices are weighing on Long Islanders.

At Smith Haven Mall in Lake Grove on Thursday, Ronkonkoma resident Liz Chechanover, 42, said that she and her husband have had to adjust their grocery shopping habits over the last few months.

“Instead of doing one big shop every week or every two weeks, we’re just going to the store for what we need rather than just shopping the aisles,” the mother of two said. “We barely ever go out to dinner anymore, either.”

The Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of inflation, showed overall prices rose 3.8% in March year-over-year for the 25-county region that includes Nassau and Suffolk counties, according to data the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday. The rate is a slowdown from February’s 4.2% year-over-year rate, but matches September’s rate.

The index from February to March rose 0.1%.

Still, the costs of some goods and services over the year had large spikes, with recreation showing the biggest increase.

Over the 12-month period that ended in March, the cost of recreation, which is goods and services related to leisure and entertainment, such as amusement park admissions, sporting events, and recreational equipment, rose an average of 9.3%.

Coming in second was the category of meats, poultry, fish and eggs, with a price hike of 8.9%. Prices in dairy and related products grew by 5.1%.

Last month, the average prices of food at home, which is all groceries, rose 3.3% year-over-year, but they were 25% higher than the prices five years earlier. The COVID-19 pandemic started in March 2020.

Housing represents a significant challenge to residents’ finances in the metro region.

In March, the cost of housing was 5.1% higher and rent alone was 5.4% higher than in the same month a year earlier.

But housing costs in March were 22% higher than they were five years earlier.

At Tanger Outlet in Riverhead on Thursday, Robin Holz, 71, said at this point she is not concerned about the economy for herself but worries about her adult son’s future.

“I’m anxious about my son and the younger generation,” the Riverhead resident said of her son. “He has his own place, which he got before everything went crazy and with my help.”

Her son is currently unemployed and has no healthcare, while he looks for a job, Holz said.

Aside from the consumer price hikes, there were some declines in costs over the 12-month period that ended in March.

Among the goods whose prices fell were all types of gasoline, which had an 8.5% decline; fruits and vegetables, 1.3%; clothes, 0.8%; and new cars, 0.5%.

National Outlook

Nationally, the price index rose 2.4% over the 12-month period that ended in March but fell 0.1% from February to March.

The nation’s price index is encouraging and surprisingly soft, but it will do little to calm the Federal Reserve’s nerves over President Donald Trump’s enacting and pausing tariffs that have riled the stock market in recent weeks — and March’s price data predates the tariffs that took effect this month, such as the 25% tariffs on imports of cars and parts that started April 3, Matt Colyar, an economist at Manhattan-based Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a note Thursday.

In normal times, the price index results would be good news but the Trump administration’s economic policies are creating uncertainty, said John Rizzo, an economist and professor at Stony Brook University.

“This all creates tremendous economic angst and uncertainty that causes the stock market to plummet, destroys consumer confidence, and stifles investment,” he said.

Given the “turbulent times” in which Americans are living, the month-to-month CPI changes suddenly become more important than the year-over-year changes, said economics professor Mariano Torras, who is chairman of the Department of Finance and Economics at Adelphi University in Garden City.

“This could be especially revealing given the likely expected inflation that is baked into the numbers. In other words, if prices fall despite people expecting them to rise … it could indicate a recession,” he said.

The decline could be temporary, “and we would be wise to keep our eye on the trend for the next few months,” he said.

With Lee Meyer