With Hezbollah weakened, Lebanon to hold presidential vote

By Laila Bassam and Tom Perry

BEIRUT (Reuters) -Lebanon’s parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel’s war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the group’s ally Bashar al-Assad in neighbouring Syria.

The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022. None of the groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus candidate.

Momentum appeared to be building behind army chief General Joseph Aoun late on Wednesday, as Hezbollah’s preferred candidate – Suleiman Frangieh – withdrew his candidacy and declared his support for the military commander, along with a growing number of other lawmakers.

But Aoun, who is said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy U.S. approval, remained short of the 86 votes he needs, with the Iran-backed Hezbollah and its Shi’ite ally the Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri among those still opposing him, three senior Lebanese politicians said.

A candidate requires 86 votes to win in a first-round vote, or 65 in a second round. But Berri has said that Aoun, as a still-serving state employee, would need still 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment.

The vote marks the first test of Lebanon’s power balance since Hezbollah – which propelled its then Christian ally Michel Aoun to the presidency in 2016 – emerged badly pummelled from the war with Israel.

It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades, both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah.

One of the Lebanese politicians said Western and Arab contacts with Lebanese factions had intensified on Wednesday with the aim of securing the election of Aoun, who commands the U.S.-backed Lebanese military.

French and Saudi envoys met Lebanese politicians in Beirut on Wednesday. Four Lebanese political sources who met the Saudi envoy, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, last week said he spelt out preferred qualifications which signal Saudi support for Aoun.

Saudi Arabia was once a big player in Lebanon, vying with Tehran for influence, before seeing its role eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah, which is listed as a terrorist group by Washington and its Gulf Arab allies.

Other candidates in focus include Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund official who formerly served as finance minister, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari – head of General Security, a state security agency.

MAJOR SHIFT

A State Department spokesperson said it was “up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor”.

“We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political institutions,” the spokesperson said.

Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper, was not certain anyone would be elected, even after the major shift in the balance of power in Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s weapons have long been a source of division.

He said the only way a president could be elected would be if Hezbollah and Amal agreed on Aoun or Azour. But if they tried to install their preferred candidate, this would “sever the oxygen from Lebanon”.

Aoun has a key role in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces.

Still reeling from a financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild.

Much of the damage is in Shi’ite majority areas.

Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad’s ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon.

Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan said last October that Riyadh had never fully disengaged from Lebanon and that outside countries should not tell Lebanese what to do.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio, saying the election was “a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of peace” and also for Lebanon’s economic and social recovery.

(Additional reporting by John Irish in Paris, Simon Lewis in Washington and Pesha Magid in Riyadh; Writing by Tom Perry, Editing by William Maclean and Deepa Babington)