A ‘weakened’ Assad is better than jihadists on Israel’s border
As Syria’s fragmented opposition groups continue their offensive against Bashar al-Assad’s forces, Israel is closely monitoring the situation across its border.
On Friday, Israeli fighter jets attacked Hezbollah weapon-smuggling routes located near the Syrian-Lebanese border and announced a reinforcement of aerial and ground forces in the Golan Heights area due to the “internal conflict” in Syria.
“IDF troops are deployed along the border and the IDF is monitoring developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Israeli border and will thwart any threat against Israel,” the IDF said.
Assad has been a thorn in Israel’s eye for decades, allowing Iran to entrench itself across Syria and providing a smuggling route for weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Anti-regime forces topple the head of an Assad statue in Hama – Muhammed Haj Kadour/AFP
Israel has carried out thousands of airstrikes against weapons convoys as well as Hezbollah and other Iranian-affiliated militias in Syria since 2017. Hamas also operated from Syria during the Oct 7 war, firing rockets at Israel.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, warned Assad last month that he was “playing with fire” by allowing Syria to turn into a launching pad for attacks against Israel.
But the alternative to Assad is not necessarily good news for Israel. The offensive against the Syrian army is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a radical Islamist group with roots in al-Qaeda.
Syrian rebels celebrate the capture of the the central-west city of Hama – Muhammad Haj Kadour/AFP
Gideon Sa’ar, the foreign minister, made it clear who Israel supports: “Our allies in this case are the minorities. We need to look at the interests of the Kurdish minority, which is relatively friendly to Israel, and see what its desires are.”
Mr Sa’ar said it was hard to imagine Syria maintaining its current sovereignty but that the country would most likely be divided into federations made up of minorities, such as the Kurds and Druze.
But the foreign minister didn’t address the threat from radical Islamist groups like HTS, which has an estimated 30,000 fighters. They, along with other opposition groups, have taken over control of key cities like Aleppo and Hama and are now on their way to Homs.
If the Syrian army collapses, HTS and other groups could take control of southern Syria, posing a direct threat to Israel. This has caused Israel to warn opposition groups to stay away from the border, according to Channel 13.
On Friday, footage circulated on social media showing rebels raising their flag in the southern Syrian city of Daara, just 20km from the border with Israel.
A former senior Israeli official told The Telegraph that Israel is hoping that Assad will stay in power as he is a “devil who is easy to deter and control, mainly through Russia. And he will be held accountable for his actions”.
The official added that the weapons smuggled from Iran through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon pose a major challenge for Israel “but the air force has total aerial superiority. We can do what we want as long as we co-ordinate with Russia”.
Credit: Telegram / North Liberated News Network
“The situation wouldn’t be better under Turkish-backed rebels,” the official added.
Dr. Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and an expert on Syria, warned that the fall of Mr Assad would be “a significant blow to Iran and its proxies”.
However, Dr Valensi added that the prospect of jihadists taking control of massive stockpiles of weapons, including chemical weapons, poses a “serious threat” to Israel.
The seizing of weapons is already well underway in numerous places across Syria, most recently in Daara.
The current Assad regime and Iran’s Axis of Resistance pose a more “severe strategic threat” to Israel than HTS and other rebel factions despite the uncertainty and risks posed by jihadist factions, according to Dr. Valensi.
The best outcome for Israel is a “weakened” and “revamped” Assad who could distance himself from the Iranian-led axis given its “inability to effectively assist him” during the current offensive.
Dr Carmit Valensi says the jihadists controlling stockpiles of weapons pose a ‘serious threat’ to Israel – Anadolu
But if Assad sticks with the Iranian-led axis, Dr Valensi suggested that this presents a “unique opportunity to push for regime change in Syria, potentially severing the axis”.
“It appears that Israel is still in a phase of evaluating the situation and determining the preferred course of action based on the evolving reality,” Dr Valensi said, adding that Israel recognises its limited ability to directly influence events at this stage.
As opposition groups advance through Syria with Damascus on the horizon, Mr Netanyahu has summoned his ministers this weekend to discuss developments in Syria.
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