Super Micro’s $40 Billion AI Bet Sends Shares Soaring–But One Big Risk Could Change Everything

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) just dropped a massive forecast bombshell$40 billion in sales by fiscal 2026, crushing Wall Street’s $30.7 billion estimate. That’s a bold call, fueled by skyrocketing demand for AI-optimized servers, especially with Nvidia’s new Blackwell B200 chips in the mix. But here’s the twist: the near-term outlook isn’t as pretty. The company slashed its fiscal 2025 revenue target to $24.3 billion from $28 billion, and its latest quarterly sales and profit figures missed estimates. Investors, though, are locked in on the long gameSuper Mirco’s shares jump 7.4% at 1.04pm today.

Meanwhile, Super Micro is shaking up its balance sheet with a $700 million convertible notes offering, alongside tweaks to its existing $1.725 billion convertible notes due 2029. The goal? Fuel expansion and double down on AI infrastructure. But there’s an elephant in the roomregulatory troubles. The company is still racing to meet a February 25 Nasdaq compliance deadline after missing its annual financial filing, and it’s under scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice and SEC. Despite an independent review finding no evidence of misconduct, questions around governance and transparency linger.

Still, the AI gold rush isn’t slowing down, and Super Micro is positioning itself as a key player in the high-performance computing arms race. Analysts say the AI wave could keep lifting Super Micro, along with peers like Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. But for now, investors are watching two things: whether SMCI can clear its regulatory hurdles and if its explosive growth projections hold up in reality.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.