5 questions answered about the Suffolk fires

As firefighters from across Long Island battle multiple brush fires along Sunrise Highway in eastern Suffolk County Saturday, here is what to know about the conditions:

What is causing this to happen on Long Island?

Long term conditions have been unusually dry. Three out of the last six months saw well below normal precipitation at the official National Weather Service recording station at MacArthur Airport. We also had much less snowfall this past winter, and hence, less snowpack than normal (about a third of normal). There were a number of days with gusty winds and low relative humidity, which produces ideal conditions for brush fire potential toward the month of March.

Could Long Island see this coming?

Yes. The U.S. Drought Monitor has been consistently putting a good portion of Long Island in either an “Abnormally Dry” or “Moderate Drought” condition for many weeks going back to the fall. A public fire danger advisory from the NWS went up Friday night. We did get some relief with recent rain days over the past month, and most of Suffolk County was actually downgraded to “No Notable Dry or Drought Condition,” but the East End and Nassau remained in some type of drought or abnormally dry status. However, the persistent gusty winds and non-prolonged or soaking rain days were not enough to eliminate or significantly reduce the fire threat on Long Island.

When is peak fire season on Long Island?

Peak brush fire season on Long Island is typically from around March 15 through May 5. That’s when the season changes, the trees and plants are still void of green leaves/vegetation (which contains water), and the soil is still cold and is in some cases hard frozen. Water doesn’t absorb well and rain tends to run off instead of soak in, until we start to warm up consistently during late April and May. We still are prone to late-season, winter-type airmasses from Canada that have very low humidity and very dry air, which adds to the conditions.

Does climate change play a factor?

It’s typically hard to directly link any specific weather event or condition to climate change, but the prevailing wind patterns over the past year have likely contributed to the significant fires in other parts of the nation like Los Angeles and South Carolina. A long-term pattern of warmer temperatures nationwide — combined with a fast jet stream pattern — has been a bad combination for those areas that have not seen substantial soaking rain days.

The entire Northeast, and the mid-Atlantic states, are included in these areas.

Does the latest weather forecast show any rain on the way?

Unfortunately, no. Long Island does not expect to see any substantial rainfall until perhaps later next week or next weekend.

This will allow the dangerous fire potential conditions to persist, and all Long Island residents need to be aware of this.