U.S. relationship likely top of mind for voters this federal election, poll analyst says

Liberals and Conservatives are running neck-in-neck to win the federal election April 28, says a poll analyst, who has identified three potentially close races in New Brunswick.

Éric Grenier, who covers Canadian elections, politics and polls on TheWrit.ca, pointed to Miramichi-Grand Lake, Fredericton-Oromocto and Saint John-Kennebecasis as ridings where the campaign could be tight.

And while housing and health care are still important to voters, Grenier believes those issues could be overshadowed by the likely major issue of the campaign — the tariff threats and threats on Canadian sovereignty by U.S. President Donald Trump.

With New Brunswick bordering the state of Maine, Grenier said he thinks that will put this issue top of mind for the province’s voters.

The parties led by Conservative Pierre Poilievre, left, and Liberal Mark Carney nationally. Grenier says voter perceptions of parties and party leaders are the most important factors in federal election outcomes. (Ethan Cairns/The Canadian Press)

According to the CBC Poll Tracker, the polls suggest a significant lead in Atlantic Canada for the Liberals, at around 50 per cent.

As of Sunday, when the election was called, the CBC Poll Tracker suggested a narrow lead nationally for the Liberals, with support from 37.5 per cent of those polled, over the Conservatives, with about 37.1 per cent.

“As we’ve seen in past elections, the two most recent ones for example, the votes and the seats don’t always line up,”  Grenier said in an interview with CBC News on Monday.

“So despite the fact that we are looking at this pretty much tied race across the country, the Liberals are still the favourites to win the most seats.”

The CBC Poll Tracker includes every poll that is being published right now, Grenier said. The tracker is an accumulation of all polls, including those from pollsters, such as Abacus, Leger and Ipsos, among others.

The shift in the polls since Justin Trudeau’s resignatio as prime minister has been remarkable, Grenier said, and probably one of the biggest shifts in Canadian history.

“We’re looking at this enormous swing that has transformed the landscape from an inevitable Pierre Poilievre Conservative big majority government to now, what is essentially a toss-up race, where it’s really either Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre’s election to lose,” he said.

“It’s just an incredible amount of change that we just normally do not see in Canadian politics.”

Local candidates may matter in close N.B. ridings

Grenier said it’s hard to predict where things will stand in the next five weeks, but if the election were held today, his personal projection would award the Liberals six seats in New Brunswick and the Conservatives four — the same outcome as the last election.

Nationally, Grenier said, voter perceptions of the parties and party leaders are the most important factors in the outcome of elections, and the importance of local candidates will differ from riding to riding.

While the name on the ballot may not be a decisive factor, it could make the difference in particularly close ridings.

“I think that is all the more the case in New Brunswick and other areas of Atlantic Canada, where the attachment to that local candidate usually and traditionally has been a lot stronger than we see in other parts of Canada,” said Grenier.