What to expect and when

SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — San Diego is expected to get hit by its first major storm of the year this week following the single slowest start to the region’s typical “rainy season” in recorded history.

The storm, which is an atmospheric river moving in from the northwest, will bring several days of moderate to heavy rainfall. The absence of rain up until this point could give way to widespread flooding, due to the drying out of the ground since the last major storm last year.

A flood watch has been issued for most of the county west of the mountains due to this potentiality later in the week.

Flood watch issued for these San Diego areas as atmospheric river approaches

Here is a timeline of what to expect over the next few days with the storm:

Tuesday

Winds will be the primary impact San Diegans feel on Tuesday as the atmospheric river inches closer. Strong westerly winds will pick up heading into the afternoon with most parts west of the mountains seeing gusts of up to 20 miles per hour.

East of the mountains, in desert areas, winds are expected to be much stronger. Per the National Weather Service, gusts could hit speeds of up to 65 miles per hour in isolated areas. A wind advisory is in place for those areas until 10 p.m., when the winds are expected to die down.

Wednesday

The first round of light rain is expected to begin in the morning on Wednesday, around 8 a.m. or 9 a.m. Throughout the morning, the rain will become more widespread, but is expected to stay on the lighter side before letting up around 7 p.m.

In this first bout, models show totals will range from about a quarter to half an inch of rain for beach and valley communities, and up to an inch in the mountains.

Thursday

There will be a bit of a lull in the early morning hours of Thursday with light rain resurging again around 4 a.m. The precipitation will become more intense throughout the morning and into the evening.

The highest impact is expected between the hours of 6 p.m. and 11 p.m., when the main strand of the low-pressure system and associated cold front roll through. Rain rates could be intense at times for the region, mainly in North County areas. Thunderstorms could be likely as well.

Both rounds of rain could bring storm totals to 1.5 to 2 inches of rain for beaches and valleys, and 3 to 5 inches up in the mountains.

In the county’s highest elevations, some of this rainfall may come down as flurries, but the snow levels with this storm are not likely to drop low enough for widespread blankets of snow.

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Friday

Friday will see a continuation of showers, but it will decrease in activity as the day goes on. By the afternoon, scattered light showers will continue, but flooding concerns will linger given the heavy rain the night before.

Flood-prone and low-laying areas could be impacted with this flooding, likely causing headaches on the roads among other things. Burn scars, like those in Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties, are also areas of concern for this flooding, especially given higher favorable rates of rainfall to the north of San Diego.

The flood watch will expire towards the end of the day on Friday, when the bulk of the rain will have passed.

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