Will Tennessee be hit with once in 1,000-year rain? Latest forecast ahead of severe weather

Days after multiple tornadoes tore through the state, parts of Tennessee are bracing for a possible once in a 1,000 year rain event.

A storm system is ripping through the central United States, potentially dropping more than 10 inches of rain in some communities, including in parts of West Tennessee. The latest predictions from AccuWeather, the storm is expected to dump the equivalent of up to four months’ worth of rain over a five-day period.

“Should the amount of rain occur that we anticipate over the middle of the nation, it would exceed the 500 to 1,000-year average,” AccuWeather meteorologist William Clark said, “Truly, the potential is there for a historic flash flooding event.”

This rain event and other storm systems are expected to impact a 1,000-mile swath from Texas to Ohio, according to Accuweather.

Parts of the U.S. could see “generational” rain amounts and, along with it, flash floods and even possibly tornadoes.

“People who have lived in a community their entire lives may see water rapidly rising and flooding areas they have never seen flood before,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “Do not assume that if you have not seen flooding in an area before, that it will not occur this time.”

Here’s how Tennessee is expected to fare as this “generational” rain event moves across the U.S.

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Tennessee severe weather forecast: Parts could see inches of rain, potential flooding

Western Tennessee is expected to get the brunt of these storm systems, with some meteorologist predicting upwards of a foot of rain to fall in the Memphis area over the next five days. The National Weather Service also expects areas of the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys to see a tornado outbreak starting Wednesday into the night.

Here are the different hazardous weather advisories already in place by the weather service:

Memphis, West Tennessee: Wind advisory until midnight on Wednesday and a flood watch until 7 a.m. Sunday, April 6.

Nashville, Middle Tennessee: Wind advisory until 4 a.m. on Thursday, April 3, and a flood watch until 7 a.m. Sunday, April 6.

The National Weather Service warns that Tennesseans in these communities should be prepared for severe weather, including the potential for significant rain, flash flooding, large hail, straight line winds and even tornadoes.

How much rain is expected in Tennessee? When will it start?

West and Middle Tennessee are expected to see rain starting late Wednesday afternoon and it will continue through the weekend.

Significant rain is expected during this time, and communities in Middle and West Tennessee should be prepared for possible flooding during this event. Here’s how many inches of rain are predicted for some areas as of Wednesday morning.

Union City: 10-15 inches

Along and north of I-40 in West Tennessee: 10-15 inches

Memphis, Shelby County: 8-10 inches

Clarksville: 8-10 inches

Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston counties: 6-10 inches

Waverly: 6-8 inches

Nashville: 5-6 inches

East Tennessee will be spared the brunt of the storm but could see rain and severe storms this weekend.

What does ‘generational flooding’ mean?

The National Weather Service out of Memphis referred to these storm systems’ potential to bring “generational flooding” to the area.

This usually refers to an event that usually only happens once in a generation…or a once-in-a-lifetime event.

People in East Tennessee and western North Carolina saw similar flooding after Tropical Storm Helene dumped massive amounts of rain in those communities, which caused rivers to crest to historic levels and cut a swath of destruction that has forever changed those communities.

Tennessee weather warnings

Keep up to date with the latest weather warnings below.

Tennessee weather radar

What is a tornado watch?

When a tornado watch is in place tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area, according to the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service suggests people who are in the warning area review and discuss their emergency plans, check supplies and have a safe room incase the weather takes a turn for the worse.

What is a tornado warning?

When a tornado warning is issued, it means a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar. There is imminent danger to life and property.

Here are some suggestions from the National Weather Service if a tornado warning is issued for your area:

• Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building

• If in a mobile home, a vehicle, or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris

Warnings typically are for a much smaller area that may be impacted by a tornado identified by a forecaster on radar, a trained spotter or law enforcement who is watching the storm, according to the National Weather Service.

Tornado warnings are issued by your local forecast office.

What is flash flooding?

Flash flooding usually begins within six hours, but often within three hours, of heavy rain or mass amounts of water accumulating in an area, according to the National Weather Service.

This type of flooding usually happens very quickly and catches people off guard. It can be caused by a number of things, but is often due to extremely heavy rainfall from thunderstorms.

“The intensity of the rainfall, the location and distribution of the rainfall, the land use and topography, vegetation types and growth/density, soil type, and soil water-content all determine just how quickly the flash flooding may occur, and influence where it may occur,” writes the National Weather Service.

Flood watch vs. flood warning: What is the difference?

A flood watch and a flood warning are two different things. Here’s the difference.

A flood watch indicates that the conditions are favorable to flooding in an area that is under a watch. These flood watches are usually issued hours and even days ahead of the weather event that could cause the flooding.

A flood warning means that the flooding that could be harmful and poses a serious threat to property and people is expected. This too can be issued hours and days ahead of time based on forecast predictions.

Anytime flooding is a risk people should use caution. Water levels can change rapidly during periods of heavy rainfall.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Tennessee severe weather forecast ahead of generational flooding event